Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S
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As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.
In Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts Are All the Rage; America 'Disintegrates' in 2010
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html
By ANDREW OSBORN
MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.
In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."
Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.
But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.
A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.
"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.
Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.
In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin's ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country's top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin's English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today.
Mr. Panarin's apocalyptic vision "reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today," says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. "It's much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union."
Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin's predictions. "Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people," says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin's theories don't hold water.
Mr. Panarin's résumé includes many years in the Soviet KGB, an experience shared by other top Russian officials. His office, in downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, with pennants on the wall bearing the emblem of the FSB, the KGB's successor agency. It is also full of statuettes of eagles; a double-headed eagle was the symbol of czarist Russia.
The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are "classified."
In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010.
"When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise," he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. "They didn't believe me."
At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.
He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.
California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.
"It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time." A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. "It's not there for no reason," he says with a sly grin.
Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt "a pyramid scheme," and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator.
Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," he wrote. "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."
The article prompted a question about the White House's reaction to Prof. Panarin's forecast at a December news conference. "I'll have to decline to comment," spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter.
For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino's response was significant. "The way the answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened to very carefully," he says.
The professor says he's convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years beforehand. "When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him," says Prof. Panarin.
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Not really anything to be happy over....you don't think the Malaysians and Indonesians actually like us being here right?
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The difference is that they cant do anything about us and we havent screwed up like the US has.
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Wars has often been initated to divert public attention from the invaders' domestic problems.
So even if we do nothing.....
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Thats so ironic.
Creating external problems to conceal internal ones.
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let US end and China be the 'Tai Ko' and all the Angmos kneel at the chinese
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California..Chinese influence...... disaster.
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Hahaha, joke....this guy. How can any part of US come under Chinese or Mexican rule?
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"For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously....
Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control."
Its a possibility.
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Wah.. So if I go to US after 2010 I will not see WWE anymore? Because the people are fighting?
Lol might as well. Down with WWE! Down with fake wrestling!
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US to fall, Obama to be Killed, World war 3 will come. Singapore will be unaffected cos they will be singing treaty with every country
China to fall too, and owned by Japanese and history repeats.
Singapore to secretly kill the malaysians and take the whole Malaysia and rename as singapore
Singapore then install ERP from sentosa all the way to KL...
and i said this based on absolutly nothing =)
every country ask USA pay back.. what can they do
bankurpt lor
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And Singapore will become the next superpower.
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From the Russian state media, where any Russian journalist who dares to report against the Putin govt is marked for death?
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Russia should just concentrate on their aircraft carrier first.
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Originally posted by googoomuck:
From the Russian state media, where any Russian journalist who dares to report against the Putin govt is marked for death?
"For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media."
You make it sound as if this prediction is coming from the Russian state media. Not that I disagree that Russian journalists die from Putin-related causes, but I think the likelihood of American disarray is very possible given the state of the US today.
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Originally posted by 16/f/lonely:
Russia should just concentrate on their aircraft carrier first.
Russia's a traditional land power. Recently they just beefed up their nuclear strike force and have been upping displays of air power.
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Originally posted by freedomclub:
"For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media."
You make it sound as if this prediction is coming from the Russian state media. Not that I disagree that Russian journalists die from Putin-related causes, but I think the likelihood of American disarray is very possible given the state of the US today.
Believe it or not, I think Russia got a better chance of falling apart. -
Originally posted by 16/f/lonely:
Believe it or not, I think Russia got a better chance of falling apart.At least they got an economic bargaining chip with Europe and other regions of the world with their oil and gas reserves...
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Originally posted by freedomclub:
Russia's a traditional land power. Recently they just beefed up their nuclear strike force and have been upping displays of air power.
HahahThat's before oil prices plunged.
So.....what has Mr Putin said of late?
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Originally posted by freedomclub:
At least they got an economic bargaining chip with Europe and other regions of the world with their oil and gas reserves...
So it seems.But I don't blame the anti-USA sentiments in Russia.
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The Emerging Russian Giant Plays its Cards Strategically
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Originally posted by 16/f/lonely:
HahahThat's before oil prices plunged.
So.....what has Mr Putin said of late?
Not much that I can recall. Whatever the case, the US wouldnt dare intervene in Russia's backyard again after the Georgian invasion and even NATO doesnt dare antagonise Russia by inviting Ukraine and Georgia into the alliance. Even if energy prices fall, Russia still has a powerful card to play.
Russia Says It Will Halt Delivery of Natural Gas to Ukraine- http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/31/AR2008123102832.html
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Originally posted by 16/f/lonely:
So it seems.But I don't blame the anti-USA sentiments in Russia.
Who would?
When their reason for placing an anti-missile base and radar station on Russia's borders is defence against Iran, which is more than 3 times further away from Poland than the maximum range of its Shahab-3 missile.
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Ukraine Gas Dispute - Has Putin Gone Nuts?
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Originally posted by 16/f/lonely:
Believe it or not, I think Russia got a better chance of falling apart.I have to agree with this one, Russia is too dependant on high oil prices to sustain its economy.